Trump's appeal to "blue-collar whites in Rust Belt states"

"Trump supporters and some independent analysts assert that his appeal to many blue-collar whites in Rust Belt states (such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) could pull these states’ electoral votes into the Republican column. The problem is, there is little evidence that the non-college voters supporting Trump in the primaries are defectors from the Democrats; most have been backing GOP candidates fairly consistently, so the net addition for Trump could be small. Nor do we buy the theory that increased Republican primary turnout this year means Trump is going to bring out millions more white and primarily male voters that weren’t excited by John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Maybe there will be higher white male voter participation, but there will probably be augmented, heavily Democratic minority turnout to balance it. "
The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters.
By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley
March 31st, 2016
The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters – Sabato's Crystal Ball

Personally, I don’t like statistical thinking. Even if many “blue-collar whites” in “Rust Belt” states are attracted to “aggrieved-white-man machismo”, there are, I believe, a lot of blue-collar whites who do not want to see the weird bully appear on the balcony of the White House. Statisticians tend to ignore “deviant” cases, and they often fail to notice “momentum” of social change.

“The counter-argument made by Trump allies is that he can make the industrial Midwest more competitive than past Republican nominees because of his strengths among white male voters.
Wins in Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania would certainly open up the map for Republicans in ways that recent nominees have been unable to do. But, so far at least, there’s scant polling evidence that Trump can put those states in play in the fall.”
The GOP’s electoral-map problem is not about Trump. It’s about demographics.

It is important to realize that Trump supporters are actually wealthier than the average, not typically blue-collar workers who have hit on bad times. Family income of Trump support is $72,000 per year, versus $61,000 for Clinton and Sanders. Note that average family income in OECD is closer to $35,000. Things are really not that bad in the US.

The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support

This article is very interesting.
Exit polls might show that average Trump voters are not very poor, although low-income voters are statistically underrepresented in the GOP.
In the questionnaire, the last question is about “2015 total family income”, which is not easy to answer accurately at the entrance of polling stations. They might want to appear to be wealthier than they really are.
There is no question about their occupation. There is no evidence of their “class” consciousness.
I wonder which description is more appropriate. Are they “aggrieved” whites or relatively wealthy whites?

i’m no way supporting trump i think he is very dangerous but it will be absurb to think they are some people who support him that don’t have legitamite issues although some of them are mixed in with nuts ,people who have been laid off because their jobs have gone overseas because the companies don’t want to pay taxes , and if you don’t live in border regions with mexico with all the drug trafficking and violence and murders that spill over from mexico cannot possibly understand why people would want a wall to be built.

IMHO it is perhaps a little bit hysterical to think of Trump as some grave threat!?

Firstly, I still reckon it’s against all odds that he’ll actually get elected as president (although for sure nothing is impossible.)

Secondly, I think a lot of the outrageous things he has said (e.g. entry bans for Muslims) are just a crazy blustering act, and that he has no serious intention of actually doing these things.

Thirdly, even if we take the worse case scenario, I still have to question whether he could possibly do as much damage (and indirectly cause death and mayhem on the same scale) as George W. Bush?

“Trumpism, while rightfully smashing the feckless neoconservative elite that ran the GOP into the ground, is not the answer to what ails the Republican Party. Rather, it amounts to an ideological form of fool’s gold, a disastrous distraction that can only lead to prolonged electoral defeat.”
Donald Trump will lose and Trumpism will die with him

I heard a caller to a radio show state that he and 80% of his union brethren were solidly behind Trump. Union workers are both blue-collar and often well paid. They’d like to keep it that way, of course. Odd to hear strong union support of a Republican candidate, though.

Apocryphally, I know someone who was a partner in a home improvement business. He told me of a certain plumber that they used who would leave his large, beautiful house in the country each morning, drive his Cadillac to the yard where he kept a rusty, beat-up old plumber’s truck, and drive that to the job site. He’d stop work at 2 pm, take the truck back, and drive his Cadillac home.

Perhaps not typical, but having paid for plumbers I can believe the story. Personally, I hate plumbing and am happy to pay them to do it. Especially on the waste side.

Is it possible he could now be gaining ground in the polls?! (Heck America is an unpredictable place…)

Pat Buchanan advocated many of Trump’s positions years ago, so some fundamental positions are unlikely to diappear even if the Trump fails to win the Presidency.

Buchanan’s main intellectual opponent was William F. Buckley Jr., who had a great influence on ‘movement conservatism’. It’s possible to find some of his Firing Line programs on youtube and discover just how far the level of political debate has fallen.

As for the liklihood of Trump winning, Hillarry should easily beat him, but she doesn’t have her husband’s political skills or easy going charm. Make sure to watch the electoral college and not just the national polls. Democrats have an in-built demographic advantage in the college, but some of the important swing states are perilously close at the moment.

Yeah, there was some interesting stuff on Firing Line - including the famous WFB Jr versus (young) Chomsky clash :slight_smile:

”The ties between Republican elites — elected officials, donors and Washington insiders — and voters have actually been fraying for years. Traditional power brokers long preached limited-government conservatism and wanted to pursue an immigration overhaul, entitlement cuts, free trade and a hawkish foreign policy, and nominees like John McCain and Mitt Romney largely embraced that agenda. Republican leaders also vilified President Obama and Democrats, stoking anger with rank-and-file conservatives.”
Republican Party Unravels Over Donald Trump’s Takeover Republican Party Unravels Over Donald Trump’s Takeover - The New York Times