Pollsters had been chastised for not capturing an anti-establishment upsurge before 2016’s Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s U.S. election, even though both results were within a reasonable margin of error.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said a perceived large polling error for both Brexit and the U.S. election was actually only around 2-4 percent. Even assuming a bigger margin of error in France, the bank sees around a 15 percent chance of a Le Pen win, versus some bookmakers odds showing around 30 percent.