Btw, reading Sedaris’s article, it occurred to me that the main problem may not be the measure itself (although considering more multi-dimensional variables is certainly important) but our obsession with “top ten” lists and the like.
Consider number of steps as an indicator for fitness, as in the article. Let’s accept that it is measured properly, that it is the main form of exercise for a set of individuals and so on, and that it is the only available variable. Ok, we want to predict which individuals are likely to be “fittest” (most “successful”) based on that piece of information.
I would argue that it would be those in the upper middle range, not the top ones!!!
Why is that? Well, those with very low counts are not moving, so they are not fit. As for vocabulary size, this is an excellent predictor for low level.
But those with insanely high counts are probably not very fit either! At this range, this is mostly a measure of obsession, rather than fitness, because someone who is walking the whole day is either “gaming” the system or all they do is walk, which is not healthy because that means that they are missing out on key components of fitness such as:
- Rest: for fitness you must push your organism, stimulate it, and then rest so it can recover and get stronger
- Other activities/normal life: you get fit to do something, to carry out a more fulfilling life, to play with your friends/sons/grandsons, achieve great things, not just for the sake of it. You can’t have a fulfilling life just by walking all day.
- Other physical activities: walking is all right but you still need more, you can be the best walker in the world and have an atrophied upper body. You need to do more (strength, mobility, …) even if it is only occasional and is not your main physical exercise.
So, succesful stories are in the middle-upper range: these are people than take walking seriously ad even push themselves over the average but still have time for other key components of fitness and general success.
Word count and other Lingq stats are similar. Low counts show low level but the most successful stories are those of people who took Lingq seriously and even pushed themselves a bit for some time but also engaged in other activities and eventually “graduated” from Lingq and went on to use their knowledge for something meaningful. Depending on the goals, they may either discontinue Lingq use or come back after some time for a new language.
Btw, the OP also implied that learning more languages would be more “successful”, which I also dispute. I am much more impressed by someone mastering a few languages than
I think that this idea of “upper middle” supremacy makes sense also based on particular examples for this community. For example Steve has a huge word count, of course, it is his product, he is supposed to test it hard and it is his “job” to some extent. That is all well and good but it would be naive to expect others to have the same type of commitment. His word count in Russian, e.g., is very high (not the highest) but, as a Russian learner, I can assure that there are other Lingq users, with a substantially lower count and who have taken the word accumulation way slower and who have a much, much higher level in the language. I try not to mention third parties but I have some examples in my head. This is no criticism of Steve, he can communicate in Russian well, which was his goal, but he himself admits that his level is so-so, it is certainly not his strongest language.
One last point: participants in this thread have argued that well, ok, maybe known words can’t predict overall skill in the language, but at least, they predict high reading ability. I even dispute this. Just as in the stepping example, language learning is a synergistic set of skills. Even some degree of engaging in other activities (media watching, conversation) can dramatically improve your reading comprehension because you engage with the culture, you meet familiar words in differente contexts and wordss that are rare in writing are common in speech, so you may have missed or misunderstood those.
J.L. Borges has a wonderful story about how Averroesjust can’t understand Aristotle’s “Poetics” , although he has a wonderful command of the language, because his lack of experience with theatre doesn’t allow him to “grok” tragedy. He simply lacks cultural context so he can’t understand a text. At the time, that obstacle would’ve been impossible to overcome. Nowadays you can add to your understanding through direct contact with the culture of your target language. You’ll never get that is all you do is add word counts: La busca de Averroes - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre