Polyglot Conference Budapest

Open Forum in English
41

As so often, Steve, you are shooting from the hip without quite grasping the point.

Yes of course Germany today is very unlike the Third Reich. And yes the Nazis wouldn’t have lasted very long - which is precisely my point.

So again, my rhetorical question is: would a Hitler victory in 1945 have made much difference 100 years later? Maybe it would, but then again, maybe not. Germany has always tended to dominate central Europe and there are signs this is still very much the case.

Sure, we are talking about economic power rather than military power - but sometimes the end result isn’t much different. (For example: Merkel was able to oust an elected leader in Italy; and is able to dictate policy in Greece…)

42

Jay, I I think I understood your point quite well. Your point was that German outward expansion and domination is a given in the development of Europe and that in 30 years from now when we look back on the 20th century, Hitler will not be seen to have had that much of an influence on the course of history. To me that is nonsense.

It is also not true that Merkel ousted an elected leader in Italy and dictated policy in Greece. That is over simplification to the point of simply being not true. In Europe we have an increasingly powerful bureaucracy in Brussels which is staffed by officials from all member countries. In addition, smaller countries like Finland and some of the new members from Eastern Europe, as well as Great Britain and the Netherlands, were influential in the decisions dealing with the crisis in southern Europe.

Germany has 16% of the population, and 20% of the GDP of the European Union. It has willingly allowed itself to firmly intertwined with the institutions and the future of the European Union, which is central to its foreign and economic policy. Of course they are the most powerful country in Europe. Look at Canada dealing with the United States if you want to see the difficulty of unequal relationships. However things are never black and white. There are many ways for smaller countries to achieve their goals.

43
  1. So many say that one of the precipitating factors of WW2 was the Treaty of Versailles. However, few are aware that the treaty of Versailles was done in part as a response to the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, in which pre-Germany imposed severe reparations on the French as well as annexing part of their territory.

However, if this logic is to be followed, then Germany should have been greatly angered by the terms of the WW2 surrender and a fourth Reich would have been established. Such a right wing government has not, and doesn’t look like it will be established.

  1. Another point: some historians argue that Hitler greatly admired the British. They think that Hitler really did want to make piece with the British so that England could maintain control of their colonies while giving Germany a free hand in their territorial endeavors. They think that the famous “stop” order at the approaches to Dunkirk was done so that the British could be shown mercy and come to terms with Germany. In reality, their Panzer divisions probably halted because of the allied counterattack at Arras in which Rommel reported that “hundreds” of Allied tanks had attacked(there were actually 88) and they wanted to husband their forces for the drive towards the south.

However, the Battle of Britain undermines this point. He didn’t have any reservations in strategic and then terror bombing of many cities. Also, the plans that Germany had for Great Britain were extremely…unpleasant. Occupation, kind of like in France during WW2.

  1. Did Hitler and Germany start WW2? I actually think (I don’t have a PhD in history but know a good amount about this topic) that the Third Reich may have just attacked Russia to get the “living space” that they so craved; pushing the soviets to the Ural mountains. Remember, it was France and Great Britain that declared war on Germany first. I think it is plausible, based on evidence, that the Third Reich may have expanded East and not to the West. Now for the Pacific theater, that was all Japan’s fault.

  2. How would the world be if the Third Reich had survived and won WW2? Well, america would absolutely have gotten the A bomb before the Germans; a lot of the scientists that worked on the manhattan project fled Europe because they were Jewish or didn’t like the totalitarian regime. In Germany, their nuclear progress was very slow in the late 30s, early 40s. It probably would have been like the book “Fatherhand”, a fictional novel in which Germany “won” WW2 and the Soviet Union is pushed east of the Ural mountains and is engaged in guerilla warfare with the germans. The US and Germany would be the dominant superpowers, kind of like how the USSR and the US were.

PS: A lot of people don’t know this, but Germany didn’t win the Battle of France due to better tanks, equipment, or numbers. They were heavily outnumbered in tanks, artillery pieces, at sea, and the quality of their tanks was generally inferior to that of the Allies. They won because of better tactics like massed armor formations so that they would always have local superiority, combined arms strategy, able generals, pitting their best divisions against the “C” allied divisions, and a lot of luck. (Manstein was a military GENIUS)

44

@Steve: “…Your point was […] in 30 years from now when we look back on the 20th century, Hitler will not be seen to have had that much of an influence on the course of history…”

No, I don’t think that is quite what I said. (And anyway, considering the possibility of something is not the same as making a definite prediction.)

@Steve: “…It is also not true that Merkel ousted an elected leader in Italy and dictated policy in Greece. That is over simplification to the point of simply being not true…”

Well, there are some pretty serious political journalists and commentators here in the UK who would beg to differ with you about this, Steve.

But I really don’t want to give the impression that I have an animus towards Germany - that is far from being the (simple) truth of the matter.

BTW I also believe that there are many folks within Germany who are very uneasy about the idea of an über-powerful Germany within the EU. That is one reason why many leading German politicians (including Merkel, of course) are absolutely desperate to keep the UK within the EU…

45

“Well, there are some pretty serious political journalists and commentators here in the UK”.

There are some pretty serious political journalists and commentators in the UK that I don’t take very seriously at all.

46

What can I say, Steve? Evidently your knowledge and experience of European history and politics is much superior to theirs…

47

Not necessarily Jay, but opinion is formed by many things, not just knowledge. Otherwise people equally knowledgable on a subject would all agree.

48

Well, each to his own opinion, Steve.

I have a long history of posing as a teutophobe - even though I have spent a considerable time living in Germany, have many friends there, and spent a huge number of man-hours mastering (or trying to master) their improbably horrible (and wonderful) language.

Love-hate and hate-love, with ne’r a cigarette paper between the two…

We are, indeed, complex beings.

49

@ Friedemann: (…) I really cannot comment much about right wing propaganda on the internet, I guess I’d have to seek out this type of content. The websites or forum discussions I visit do not contain that type of content. (…)

I even get private messages on my youtube channel from people who want me to teach them German so they can understand “Mein Kampf”. Needless to say they sign their messages with a greeting which is illegal here in Austria. There are some seriously sick people out there…

I agree with Steve and Jay when they say there is a difference between inciting violence and simply being dumb. It is not illegal in Austria to say “Hitler was not that bad after all”, as a matter of fact you still hear that quite often. Also the infamous “starke Hand” or even “ein starker Führer” pops up now and then in discussions. All this is not illegal and should not be.

What, fortunately, is illegal in Austria, however, is to condone mass murder and the extermination of millions of people and/or suggesting any of these crimes ought to be repeated.

You can say you hate your neighbour, but you cannot go around and ask others to join you and try to kill him. That is in a nutshell what our “Verbotsgesetz” is all about. If you really are so keen on nazi ideology you can have yourself brainwashed but you are not allowed to go out there and form groups and try to act on your sick thoughts.

Those who understand German and are interested in learning more about our “Verbotsgesetz” can read the full text of it here:

http://www.ris.bka.gv.at/GeltendeFassung.wxe?Abfrage=Bundesnormen&Gesetzesnummer=10000207

@ Jay:
I agree with Steve in your current discussion. Europe would look much different if Hitler had won. Not to mention all the suffering and pain he and his followers would have caused. I don’t believe it would have been that easy to get rid of the nazis if they had won the war. You do remember how long Franco, another fascist (though no nazi), was in power in Spain, don’t you?

Those regimes don’t just go away over time like the flicker of a flame. Getting rid of them always and invariably comes at enormous cost in human lives.

I really don’t know where your “teutophobia” (I think that is the term you used yourself ;-)) comes from to be honest. It almost strikes me as a cliché. People need to get over that. Just think if we kept viewing the UK as the aggressive oppressor it was when it built its Empire.

As for the role of the UK in the European Union, I’m not so sure we all want them in it if they keep taking the pick of the bunch. Personally, I consider the UK much more an ally of the US than an active and constructive member of the EU.

I just don’t understand why they joined in the first place. They obviously are not happy with it. I am convinced the UK has benefited a lot from EU membership and keeps doing so (and we have benefited from their membership too) but if the British people are really so unhappy about the status quo, I see absolutely no reason why anybody should force them to stay.

Whatever my arguments or the arguments of other people may be in favour of the EU (despite its many, many insufficiencies) if the British are not happy, I think they should leave. But if they decide to stay, they ought to stop getting all in a huff every time they are asked to abide by rules which were originally made to apply to all of the members.

I’m sure you know that the UK somehow managed (and this is the fault of the other EU members and not so much of the UK) to be granted a long list of exceptions including a “bonus” which allows them to pay much less money into the EU budget than it would have to based on the original rules established.

Obviously some people consider the UK so vital for the EU that they keep granting them special treatment.

As for the British experts on European history and politics, I’m sure there are equally renowned historians who would draw a rather different picture of pre-war and post-war history.

We all choose to form our opinion on the information which comes closest to our way of understanding things. It is good to get as much information as possible from many different sources, but at the end of the day we’ll draw conclusions that are mostly based on our own personal beliefs we have cherished for so long.

I don’t want to see “ein übermächtiges Deutschland” either, as you put it. But I don’t see any indication of that. We should not blame others for our own failures and weaknesses. If Germany got strong and remains strong it is mostly due to the hard work and enviable willpower of its people.

50

@Robert: “…Europe would look much different if Hitler had won. Not to mention all the suffering and pain he and his followers would have caused. I don’t believe it would have been that easy to get rid of the nazis if they had won the war. You do remember how long Franco, another fascist (though no nazi), was in power in Spain, don’t you?..”

Robert, I think there is a subtlety which you (and Steve) are missing here. My question (it was not an assertion) was whether Europe would have looked much different IN THE LONG TERM…?

In a way your point about Spain tends to support my hypothesis: yes, Franco had an big impact in the short and medium term, yes many Spaniards suffered because of him. But are Spaniards still suffering TODAY because of Franco? If so, will they still be suffering in 30 or 50 or 100 years time from now?

Well, maybe they will. But maybe not? (I am posing questions here - that is all.)

Übrigens: das mit der Deutschfeindlichkeit war eher ein Witz… :wink:

51

@Jay (…) Robert, I think there is a subtlety which you (and Steve) are missing here. My question (it was not an assertion) was whether Europe would have looked much different IN THE LONG TERM…? (…)

Hm, interesting question…

Would you say this is comparable to let’s say a natural disaster like a hurricane devastating a huge area and when you come back to the same area 40 years later you might not find it much different from what (based on your assumptions) it might have been if there had been no natural disaster in the first place? I’m just trying to understand your line of argumentation here.

By the way, I very much appreciate our discussion. It would be boring if we all agreed all the time. As long as disagreements do not cause any harm (I’d definitely disagree with somebody’s intent to attack me for example ;-)) I mostly consider them an opportunity of exploring a different point of view.

As for your example with Spain. Well, I do believe that we all both as individuals and societies suffer from bad things happening to us and wounds need time to heal.

If the Spaniards still suffer TODAY because of Franco, I can’t tell you but I’m sure they suffered quite some time after his death because of the damage he had caused.

Fortunately, we all can heal (to a certain degree) and the fact that European countries have not waged war on each other for quite some time (excluding the tragedy in former Yugoslavia) is proof to me that wounds we have inflicted upon each other can heal but it takes time.

That I’m sometimes still greated with HH in some countries (sometimes as a tasteless joke and sometimes because people actually believe in that stuff) is also something that stems from our history. So, you might say that even today I suffer from the image of Austrians or German speaking people in general because of what happened in the thirties and fourties of the 20th century. Believe it or not, people actually disconnected in some chat forums with a nasty “fuck off, you nazi” when they heard I’m Austrian. Recent events in Greece and Italy seem to have exacerbated this attitude towards German speaking people.

By the way, I’m pretty sure I frequently misunderstand quite a few of your subtleties and I’m really appreciative of the fact that you don’t just discard my comments as nonsense but try to better explain to me what your view of things is.

Even though we disagree quite a bit, I’m sure we also have a lot in common. And even if we did not, I’m always ready to discuss things with people as long as the discussion remains respectful (which has always been the case with you; I guess your British humour makes some of your comments sound a bit harsh in my ears but I very much enjoy discussing things with you).

52

@Robert: “…Would you say this is comparable to let’s say a natural disaster like a hurricane devastating a huge area and when you come back to the same area 40 years later you might not find it much different from what (based on your assumptions) it might have been if there had been no natural disaster in the first place? I’m just trying to understand your line of argumentation here…”

There are certainly some people who argue along these lines. I remember seeing a well-known academic (I’m not entirely sure, but I think it was Prof David Starkey) argue that, if Britain leaves the EU, European history will have come full circle from pre-1914.

According to this idea, the First World War was a kind of ugly ‘explosion’ which ultimately created Hitler and thus unleashed a kind of chain reaction lasting many years. But now, at long last, things have settled down and returned to even keel. In other words (as this argument goes) there will be a situation where Germany is again the dominant power on the European mainland, rivaled not very effectively by France, while Britain sits on the sidelines and looks out towards the wider world.

Well, that is an interesting view, but I’m not sure whether I entirely agree. I don’t think “history” can be viewed as a single chain - rather it has, so to speak, different layers and aspects. There is a sense in which the events of the first half of the 20th century will continue to have implications - perhaps for ever, but at least for a very long time. However there is - perhaps - also a sense in which things will ultimately return to a kind of equilibrium? (Again, I stress that I’m considering a possibility, I’m not making a definite assertion.)

One can, I think, apply a similar line of thought to the situation which would have existed had Hitler had been victorious in 1945. In the short term it would have been nasty and ugly. In the medium term it would have been unhappy. In the longer term, after Hitler’s death…well…who knows? Perhaps democracy would have made a quick comeback - the way it did in Spain after Franco’s death?

But once again, I stress that I am considering possibilities, I am not making definite assertions. (I am sorry I have to keep on repeating this - but I have grown a little tired of being accused by Steve of making “hyperbole”.)

53

@ Robert

“Whatever my arguments or the arguments of other people may be in favour of the EU (despite its many, many insufficiencies) if the British are not happy, I think they should leave. But if they decide to stay, they ought to stop getting all in a huff every time they are asked to abide by rules which were originally made to apply to all of the members.”

Remember that there are many people in the UK, and the people who get in a huff are not necessarily the same as the people who decide if Britain stays in the EU. Telling people that they should either leave the EU or stop complaining is like telling people protesting the war in Afghanistan that they should either stop the war or stop protesting. The people protesting against the war in Afghanistan cannot stop the war, which is why they are protesting, and the people who genuinely want the UK to leave the EU shouldn’t stop complaining simply because it hasn’t happened.

"That I’m sometimes still greated with HH in some countries (sometimes as a tasteless joke and sometimes because people actually believe in that stuff) is also something that stems from our history. So, you might say that even today I suffer from the image of Austrians or German speaking people in general because of what happened in the thirties and fourties of the 20th century. Believe it or not, people actually disconnected in some chat forums with a nasty “fuck off, you nazi” when they heard I’m Austrian. Recent events in Greece and Italy seem to have exacerbated this attitude towards German speaking people. "

I have found that one of the most interesting things about living in Austria is the culture surrounding the Nazis and the extreme right. Somewhat naively, I did not expect this theme to be as dominant as it is.

I listen to a lot of political podcasts in German, and a massive fraction of them are about the extreme right, and the NSU, and the ones that are not will bring up the extreme right at every opportunity. Watching Austrian TV dramas, I find that a huge number of the stories are about the evils of the extreme right. For example, I have been enjoying the new Vienna based cop drama ‘Cop Stories’, and you can basically guarantee that whenever a few of the characters are out on the streets and the show needs a bit of arbitrary action to take place, twenty rowdy skinheads will appear out of nowhere, make incomprehensible noise and then disappear.

A couple of months ago, I went to see the musical ‘Elizabeth’ that is running in Vienna right now about the life of Sisi. They had one scene where lots of political protests were taking place I was very surprised to see a group of Nazis and a few people wearing Hitler masks appear out of nowhere. For the life of me, I have no idea what they were doing back in the 19th century. I guess the only thing worse than Nazis are time travelling Nazis.

One of my flatmates has a picture of Hitler stencilled on his bedroom door. In the picture, Hitler is blowing his own brains out with a pistol and the words ‘follow your leader’ are written underneath. Several people have gone a bit overboard to prove to me that they are not Nazis with lots of unnecessary ‘fuck Hitler’ speech that is clearly for my benefit and makes me want to respond by telling them that it is not necessary and that I don’t think they are Nazis.

p.s. I could not work out how to send messages on YouTube, so I left my email address on your YouTube channel comments section.

54

Jay,

I think the history of the 20th century without Hitler would have been a completely different one. Had he been killed on the WW1 battlefields there would probably not have been WW2 and no cold war. Last but no least, Germany would look very differently since so much of the once beautiful historic parts of cities like Hamburg, Dreseden, Nürnberg would still exist. Not to mention all the loss of engineers, scientists, intellectuals, entrepreneurs who left because of the Nazis. What a terrible desaster this was, what a terrible loss!

55

Or had he gotten into art school!

I have a very dark and unfunny joke that I exist because of all that nastiness in Europe (refugee immigration to US). Well, I think none of us would exist had those events not transpired.

It is interesting imagining what the word would be like, though. I’d imagine Poland would be quite a bit different. Maybe scandanavia would be less developed?

56

@ Jay (…) Telling people that they should either leave the EU or stop complaining is like telling people protesting the war in Afghanistan that they should either stop the war or stop protesting. (…)

I was referring to your politicians rather than to the ordinary people in the street. I have nothing against protests but I think people also need to understand that you can’t eat the cake and have it. Membership with the EU comes with certain responsibilities and I’d like all members of the EU to share them equally. By the way, many Austrians are anti EU as well.

(…) For example, I have been enjoying the new Vienna based cop drama ‘Cop Stories’, and you can basically guarantee that whenever a few of the characters are out on the streets and the show needs a bit of arbitrary action to take place, twenty rowdy skinheads will appear out of nowhere, make incomprehensible noise and then disappear. (…)

Yes, you are right. That is kind of weird and I have noticed it myself. Do you understand the dialect spoken in that series? I guess you do, even though it certainly is not that easy at times. Personally, I did not like that series at all. Way too stereotypical and clichéd and some of the acting is terribly bad. To be honest, I think the Germans make much better crime series :wink:

Austrians are maybe a bit “strange”. Don’t get me wrong, I love this country and (most of) its people. I would not want to live anywhere else which does not mean, however, I don’t appreciate the beauty of other places in this world. But I feel deeply attached to this country, its history and simply enjoy living in a place where I was born, grew up and basically live a very happy life. But we are maybe a bit “gewöhnungsbedürftig” (it takes time to take a liking to the Austrian soul, I guess :wink:

We have less right-wing related crime than many of our neighbouring countries but we have not always been honest about our past. For far too long Austrians only saw themselves as victims and did not assume responsibility for the crimes they committed. Only recently and very slowly the Republic of Austria starts coming to terms with its past.

I think it is important to remind people of what happened in the past. In doing so, we must also point out the many positive changes that have occurred but we should not become complacent. The enemy is still there…

We have right-wing extremists all over Europe (and beyond it) and we need to be watchful.Just as we need to keep an eye on religious extremists trying to infiltrate our societies.

On the other hand we should not belittle the progress which has been made and I am convinced that most European countries are strong enough today to fight extremist movements (whether from the left or the right) but it would be foolish if we were to take our guards down. Democracy is a precious thing many people have lost their lives for and it is not to be taken for granted.

@ Friedemann:
(…) Last but no least, Germany would look very differently since so much of the once beautiful historic parts of cities like Hamburg, Dreseden, Nürnberg would still exist. Not to mention all the loss of engineers, scientists, intellectuals, entrepreneurs who left because of the Nazis. What a terrible desaster this was, what a terrible loss! (…)

I completely agree with you. I watched a documentary on WWII just a few days ago and seeing the pictures of bombed cities all over Europe and stacks of dead bodies piling up is about as terrifying and depressing as it can get. What a ruthless creature man can turn into…

To me WWII is just one of so many clear signs that there is no God out there. I know, religious people will say he is not the one committing all these crimes but he obviously does pretty little to prevent them from happening. Well, he can’t be blamed anyway, since (in my opinion) he clearly does not exist. We’ll have to try and sort out this entire mess all on our own…

57

Robert, you are quoting Colin here, not me!

My reply to your comment was:

(QUOTE)…@Robert: “…Would you say this is comparable to let’s say a natural disaster like a hurricane devastating a huge area and when you come back to the same area 40 years later you might not find it much different from what (based on your assumptions) it might have been if there had been no natural disaster in the first place? I’m just trying to understand your line of argumentation here…”

There are certainly some people who argue along these lines. I remember seeing a well-known academic (I’m not entirely sure, but I think it was Prof David Starkey) argue that, if Britain leaves the EU, European history will have come full circle from pre-1914.

According to this idea, the First World War was a kind of ugly ‘explosion’ which ultimately created Hitler and thus unleashed a kind of chain reaction lasting many years. But now, at long last, things have settled down and returned to even keel. In other words (as this argument goes) there will be a situation where Germany is again the dominant power on the European mainland, rivaled not very effectively by France, while Britain sits on the sidelines and looks out towards the wider world.

Well, that is an interesting view, but I’m not sure whether I entirely agree. I don’t think “history” can be viewed as a single chain - rather it has, so to speak, different layers and aspects. There is a sense in which the events of the first half of the 20th century will continue to have implications - perhaps for ever, but at least for a very long time. However there is - perhaps - also a sense in which things will ultimately return to a kind of equilibrium? (Again, I stress that I’m considering a possibility, I’m not making a definite assertion.)

One can, I think, apply a similar line of thought to the situation which would have existed had Hitler had been victorious in 1945. In the short term it would have been nasty and ugly. In the medium term it would have been unhappy. In the longer term, after Hitler’s death…well…who knows? Perhaps democracy would have made a quick comeback - the way it did in Spain after Franco’s death?

But once again, I stress that I am considering possibilities, I am not making definite assertions. (I am sorry I have to keep on repeating this - but I have grown a little tired of being accused by Steve of making “hyperbole”.)…(UNQUOTE)

58

@ Robert - I don’t mind if you give me a nickname, but if you are going to make it Jay, things might get a little confusing.

“Do you understand the dialect spoken in that series?”

I understand what they say about as well as I understand any other form of German. I don’t find this show more difficult to understand than any other TV. Ten months ago, I knew fewer than 20 words in German, so my comprehension is still a major problem. It is increasing rapidly so I don’t worry about it.

“To be honest, I think the Germans make much better crime series ;-)”

I don’t know about that. I much prefer to watch Moritz Eisner go up against a tough case.

59

@Robert
“Just as we need to keep an eye on religious extremists trying to infiltrate our societies.”

I’d like to say things are getting better on our side of the Atlantic, but I don’t know. I fear that as more people are coming “out of the closet” for secularism here, the dynamic is just becoming more polarized. It is more or less unheard of, still, to be an atheist politician here. I sense that the next major civil rights movement here will be one for secularism. We’ll see.

60

Robert, what as your reaction to the poll that showed a majority of Austrians thought the Nazis could come back to power in Austria if the party were legal.

“London, Mar. 12 (ANI): More than half of Austria’s population think it highly likely that the Nazis would be elected if they were readmitted as a party, an opinion poll has revealed.
A 42 per cent agreed with the view that life “wasn’t all bad under the Nazis”, and 39 per cent said they thought a recurrence of anti-Semitic persecution was likely in Austria.”